While I appreciate the optimism, I’m not sure that the historical data bears out that we will probably see the birthrates climb again when the supports are in place. This is a massive challenge for all of the Global North, but especially Japan, China, South Korea, and then all the way up in the “developed world.” Some where around Panama, Indonesia, or Myanmar is where you see the 2.1 replacement rate (from 2024 data), so something close to 100 countries below 2.1 TFR.
Bribes have been tried (as in one time payments for kids). Child Care coverage has been tried. Other structural changes (like the Nordic dual parent paternity leave, or even time shifted paternity leave like France and others).
Maybe you mean more than just economic and governmental supports. As Claudia Goldin has said
“cultural changes around gender and women’s autonomy are the primary drivers of fertility decline, not just economic factors that policies might address”
This is why, as an American, I’m so confused about the anti-immigration bonanza happening. It’s not only against the American ethos, but shooting ourselves in the foot both economically and culturally. We need more people to make up for the future loss that is happening, and people from around the world have wanted to come. They pay for their worth in huge amounts (I’m already digressing so I won’t paste more journals and such on this), and what’s more if we want the economy to thrive and survive we need them… (Should we have a growth based economy is another question, that is worth asking, but again digression.)
Anyway, the point is Global North has tried and failed to address TFR, and no one has one that battle. Greater standard of living = lower TFR.
While I appreciate the optimism, I’m not sure that the historical data bears out that we will probably see the birthrates climb again when the supports are in place. This is a massive challenge for all of the Global North, but especially Japan, China, South Korea, and then all the way up in the “developed world.” Some where around Panama, Indonesia, or Myanmar is where you see the 2.1 replacement rate (from 2024 data), so something close to 100 countries below 2.1 TFR.
Bribes have been tried (as in one time payments for kids). Child Care coverage has been tried. Other structural changes (like the Nordic dual parent paternity leave, or even time shifted paternity leave like France and others).
Maybe you mean more than just economic and governmental supports. As Claudia Goldin has said “cultural changes around gender and women’s autonomy are the primary drivers of fertility decline, not just economic factors that policies might address”
This is why, as an American, I’m so confused about the anti-immigration bonanza happening. It’s not only against the American ethos, but shooting ourselves in the foot both economically and culturally. We need more people to make up for the future loss that is happening, and people from around the world have wanted to come. They pay for their worth in huge amounts (I’m already digressing so I won’t paste more journals and such on this), and what’s more if we want the economy to thrive and survive we need them… (Should we have a growth based economy is another question, that is worth asking, but again digression.)
Anyway, the point is Global North has tried and failed to address TFR, and no one has one that battle. Greater standard of living = lower TFR.