After the bubble pops how much would our lives be impacted?

A bunch of pensions will lose a lot of money. The billionaires will know when it’s the right time to short it, and so they’ll get wealthier.

Would AI vanish or still be there?

Higher end models like Mythos will still exist but be too expensive for most people to use. Lower end models will still exist. People will start developing actual tools focused on specific tasks using LLM algorithms instead of AGI. Companies will be able to buy LLM appliances they can put into their server rooms that will help with data analysis which doesn’t require sharing data which will be more useful for use with information they want to keep private.

Eventually people will have PCs, then laptops, then phones with chips optimized for LLM algorithms which don’t require sharing private information with a data center. It won’t be AGI, but it will be able to automate things on the computer and help with stuff like helping with grammar. People will be able to say something “computer, bring up the financial report from last week” and it’ll be able to do that. But it’s not going to be an AGI thing, just be able to find the correct program, files, etc. based on some simple cues.

How exactly do you think the bubble will pop? Will AI companies simply run out of money? Or will it be because of the environmental effects?

Similar to how the dot com bubble popped. Some chatter from billionaires about getting out results in them all shorting it at the same time, the share values collapse, but they make a bunch of money.

Will AI companies simply run out of money?

Yes, when they’ve gotten the last investment dollar, the billionaires will know it’s peaked which will result in a big short.

Or will it be because of the environmental effects?

They don’t care about environmental effects LOL.

When do you think the “pop” will take place?

You need to be invited to whatever is the present day equivalent of Epstein Island to know that.

After the bubble pops, in future there will be companies/people who will try the AI thing again? What will that be like?

Yup. We didn’t stop using the internet after the dot com bubble burst. It’s just the financials of it wasn’t insane anymore. LLMs can’t do everything, but it’s an algorithm that’s useful in some scenarios. It will still be useful in those scenarios, but people will stop being weirdos thinking that it’ll be able to do everything. It’s an algorithm, there’s a cost for the hardware and power to run it, in many cases it won’t work at all, in many cases it’ll work but be cost prohibitive, and then in a few cases it will be actually useful and cost effective. We’ll move to using it for only the latter case.

Over time, it will get better and be used for more things, some of the things they’re promising now may become a reality in a few decades. Kinda like the ridiculous idea to sell dog food on the internet during the dot com bubble. It was ridiculous then, but eventually the logistics caught up and more than a decade after the dot com bubble you could indeed buy dog food on the internet. I imagine it will be like that with AI. Eventually some (though not all) of the things they say you’ll be able to do in six months may actually happen… 15 years from now. But it will probably be enshittified and suck more than you imagined it would be.