Considering from where the bubble grows, my wisest guess as to when it will start showing cracks (and I’m not very wise, by the way) would be Republicans doing bad at next elections.

As of now it seems that any losses from AI industry would simply be tanked (Nvidia’s capitalization, for example, still ain’t a joke, they’ve got a lot of money to burn) or socialized. Little bits of regulations or opposition to socializing of losses may actually move the loss needle beyond pain point, where we can hope for panic to ensue.

If bubble pops - AI is here to stay anyway. Chinese have shown with their DeepSeek that you can run decent sized models locally, and the main gatekeeper of local AI is, you guessed it, Nvidia. Prices for server GPU’s are disproportionately high and one of the reasons is to not allow plebs like us to have that. But with further optimization of AI models they’ll become more and more accessible on hardware consumers already have.

My second guess of when though would be investors getting tired of AGI promises as it is AGI that has to magically turn money pit of AI into unprecedented profits.